Macro factors create two-way disturbances to tin prices, with SHFE tin prices fluctuating around 273,000 yuan/mt [SMM Tin Midday Review]

During the midday session on September 16, 2025, the price of the most-traded SHFE tin contract showed a fluctuating pattern. The opening price was 273,030 yuan/mt, and during the morning trading session, it hovered around the key level of 273,000 yuan/mt, weakening slightly compared to the previous trading day's closing price of 273,960 yuan/mt. Spot market premiums remained near 200 yuan/mt, indicating relative strength in spot prices. SHFE tin inventory increased slightly to around 7,402 mt, while LME inventory continued to rise to 2,645 mt.

From a macro perspective, a mix of bullish and bearish factors created two-way disturbances for tin prices. Weak US non-farm payrolls data for August strengthened market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in September, and a fluctuating downward US dollar provided overall support for the nonferrous metals sector. However, uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies and developments in Sino-US economic and trade relations intermittently fueled market risk-off sentiment, leading bulls to take profits. The market is closely watching the upcoming US CPI data and the US Fed's interest rate meeting for clearer policy signals.

LME tin contract prices have recently moved in close correlation with SHFE tin, though with slightly different volatility characteristics. Overseas markets also face supply concerns, but the continuous rise in LME inventory (latest reported at 2,645 mt) has somewhat alleviated squeeze risks. The LME 0-3 month spot discount widened to $132/mt, indicating relatively eased near-term supply pressure compared to the domestic market. LME tin prices remain influenced by US dollar movements and global risk appetite, and are expected to fluctuate within the range of $32,000-33,500/mt until the US Fed's monetary policy becomes clearer, maintaining high correlation with SHFE tin but potentially with slightly higher volatility.

Overall, the most-traded SHFE tin contract has strong support near 270,000 yuan/mt, but faces resistance above 280,000 yuan/mt. The afternoon session requires attention to fund flows and whether spot transactions can follow through. If there are no unexpected negative developments on the macro front, prices are expected to hover at highs, awaiting new directional guidance.